GTA 6 Is Like The Olympics – “A Rare Cultural Moment” With Massive Ripple Effects

After years of development, multiple delays, and what can only be assumed to be one of the biggest production budgets ever, Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto 6 launches on November 19. The game is poised to “blot out the sun,” some experts believe, and its release looms so large that other gaming companies are shifting dates for their own games to stay out of the blast radius.

Francis Lawrence, the director of the new Hunger Games movie Sunrise on the Reaping, which comes out a day after GTA 6, has said he hopes people can find the time to play the game and watch his movie. In short, GTA 6 is seen by some as a black hole that will suck up time, attention, and money from the broader gaming economy–and even workplaces, as people dive into the 80-hour game they’ve been waiting a decade to play.

To help make sense of, and contextualize, the enormity of GTA 6’s looming launch, GameSpot caught up with Bart Spiegel of the global professional services and research company PricewaterhouseCoopers, or PwC. He told GameSpot that GTA 6 is “something much bigger than a traditional entertainment launch,” and is more akin to an event like the Olympics.

He believes GTA 6 is a “rare cultural moment” that “commands extraordinary attention and creates economic activity well beyond the event itself.”

Spiegel said he foresees potential shifts beyond gaming, in places like TV viewership, music consumption, social media engagement, and even travel. “In an increasingly fragmented entertainment landscape, it’s rare for a single release to command this much attention across so many industries simultaneously. That’s what makes this moment so significant,” he said.

An economics professor recently claimed that about 1.5 million people plan to “call out sick” to play GTA 6, and this could come at a “cost” of $1 billion to the US economy. Spiegel said people should remember that GTA 6 isn’t anything new or special as it relates to taking time off work. “People regularly plan time off around major cultural and entertainment events, and this is another example of consumers prioritizing an experience they’re excited about,” he said.

That being said, Spiegel remarked that PwC has observed estimates suggesting time-off requests near GTA 6’s release could be 9% to 17% higher than normal. “But what’s more interesting to me is what happens outside the workplace. If millions of people are spending additional hours gaming, they’re potentially spending less time watching television, going out to restaurants, or engaging in other activities,” he said.

“And unlike a sporting event that lasts a few hours or a few weeks, this experience could keep people engaged for months. So the broader economic implications may extend well beyond a single day of missed work,” he added.

“Huge net positive”

GTA 6 is expected to be an enormous success commercially–it’s reportedly already sold 11 million units through pre-purchases, and that could rise to 25 million at launch. That would work out to $2 billion in revenue, which would cover the game’s entire development budget and most of its marketing spend, Sensor Tower said. But many are also saying that GTA 6 represents the last of a dying breed, and that other publishers might learn all the wrong lessons from its success. Spiegel said GTA 6 is going to be a “huge net positive for the gaming industry as a whole,” in part because its success will reiterate to the broader entertainment and media landscape that games are culturally significant. At the same time, Spiegel said he doesn’t foresee a world in which other publishers try to replicate a blockbuster of this magnitude.

“Very few organizations have the capital, expertise, and intellectual property required to support investments on this scale. These are extraordinary events, not necessarily repeatable business models,” Spiegel said.

If GTA 6 is the huge success it’s projected to be, it could positively uplift the broader gaming ecosystem in a lot of ways, Spiegel continued.

“It could attract new audiences, renew investor interest, and create opportunities across advertising, payments, technology, and content creation. The real lesson isn’t that everyone needs to build the next billion-dollar game. It’s that gaming is an increasingly powerful part of the entertainment economy, with opportunities that extend well beyond the games themselves,” he said.

Some companies, like Ubisoft, see GTA 6 not as something to be strictly afraid of. CEO Yves Guillemot says, that’s because the rising tide that is GTA 6 could help drive more people to gaming overall. In fact, Ubisoft is putting out a big new update for one of its biggest games, Rainbow Six Siege, right around GTA 6’s launch.

Mat Piscatella of Circana reminded people that not everyone wants to play GTA 6, and he pushed back against the theory that it’s a bad business idea to launch a game near GTA 6.

“The fear of many teams to put their game in the same window as GTA is completely overblown. GTA is going to be a massive game. Of course it is. It’s going to be a huge cultural event, but not every one of the 49 million people who own a PS5 or an Xbox Series in the US is going to be interested in that,” he told GamesBeat.

Could GTA 6 lead the push to more in-game ads?

Spiegel went on to say that one additional follow-on effect from GTA 6 could be something that gamers might balk at but publishers and investors might salivate over. He said that if GTA 6 succeeds in the way people expect it to, and draw people into its world for tens–or even hundreds–of hours, that could demonstrate to the wider market that it’s time for gaming, as an industry, to do more with advertising.

“When millions of people are spending substantial amounts of time in interactive entertainment environments, it’s natural for advertisers and investors to consider how they might participate,” he said.

Advertising for mobile and social games is already commonplace, but it’s less present in the PC and console gaming market. There are examples, of course, as companies have already undertaken efforts to put ads into gaming with mixed results. Gamers quickly revolted when EA put ads in a UFC game, prompting EA to pull them quickly to help quell the backlash. Despite that, EA recently announced the formation of a new EA Advertising division that will seek to put ads “directly into gameplay.” That announcement didn’t go over well, either, as fans pushed back against the idea of having to see ads in yet another place in their life. Other examples have been received more positively, or at least ambivalently, with a trucking company buying ad space in the American Truck Simulator series to help recruit staff.

Xbox, for its part, has big plans to put more ads in gaming. Xbox CSO Matthew Ball said advertising in console games could help with the “two-sided problem” that AAA gaming faces today. Development costs keep going up and up, and Ball said ads–as long as they’re not overly in-your-face–could be a way to help developers make more money and solidify their business fundamentals. Of course, if these companies insert more ads into gaming, that doesn’t mean they’ll stop hawking things like DLC, microtransactions, and battle passes; they’ll likely both happen in concert. As Spiegel sees it, though, if executed correctly, advertising could be a big boon for gaming.

“What’s particularly interesting is that the opportunity extends beyond placing advertisements inside games. There’s an entire ecosystem of digital advertising infrastructure, technology, and services that could benefit as gaming continues to grow. I expect we’ll see increasing interest in those opportunities, particularly from investors looking for exposure to gaming without taking on the considerable financial risks associated with developing blockbuster titles,” he said.

More investment

During the COVID years, the gaming industry saw massive revenue and player growth as people, forced to stay inside due to stay-at-home orders, turned to games to pass the time, have fun, and connect with friends. At the same time, interest rates were historically low. The cost to borrow money was so attractive that publishers ramped up significantly.

The COVID-era boost to gaming did not last, though, and the industry is now challenged, to say the least, with numerous developers cutting staff, cancelling projects, and scaling back in other ways. If GTA 6 is indeed a massive success, it could trigger renewed interest in gaming as an investment vehicle, Spiegel believes, but not necessarily exclusively for funding new games and studios. Instead, Spiegel said he foresees big investment growth for discrete elements of gaming, including advertising, payment services, and AI buildouts.

“I absolutely think a release of this magnitude will get the attention of investors, corporate executives, and private equity firms. But I don’t necessarily think that translates into another wave of billion-dollar game development,” he said. “The economics of producing games at this scale are incredibly challenging, and very few organizations have the resources, expertise, and intellectual property necessary to justify those investments.”

“Instead, I think investors will increasingly ask how they can participate in the broader gaming ecosystem,” Spiegel added. “That could mean opportunities in advertising, payment infrastructure, technology services, mobile gaming, or artificial intelligence applications that support game development.”

On the subject of AI, Spiegel said he believes it’s a “particularly interesting variable” because it could, at least in theory, allow developers to work more efficiently and bring down costs. There is debate about whether or not this is a genuine reality or wishful thinking on the part of AI companies trying to sell their products and services. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick, for example, recently told Business Insider that, despite Take-Two adopting AI products for some of its workflows, the company has not seen a material decrease in its cost structure. In fact, many theorize that AI-supported workflows will only make work more intense. For his part, Spiegel said AI in game development remains only an “emerging opportunity rather than a guaranteed outcome.”

“The longer-term impact may be less about creating another generation of massive blockbusters and more about directing investment toward the businesses and technologies that support the gaming economy,” he said.

Who should be afraid?

A lot has already been said and written about publishers moving their release dates to avoid GTA 6, and Spiegel said he foresees dramatic possibilities for how GTA 6 could take the wind out of the sails of other entertainment near its launch. He said GTA 6 is not just a major gaming launch. Instead, he thinks it’s an “event that could temporarily reshape how millions of consumers spend their time and money.”

“Streaming could be particularly vulnerable. Every hour someone spends gaming is potentially an hour they’re not watching a television show or movie. And because this launch falls just before the holiday season, it could make it difficult for streaming services to match the exceptionally strong viewership numbers we saw last year,” he said.

The new Hunger Games movie, Sunrise on the Reaping, releases a day after GTA 6 comes out.

Movie theaters could be tested, Spiegel said, and one highly anticipated film, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, will be one to watch in particular. It comes to theaters on Friday, November 20, which is one day after GTA 6 releases. Director Francis Lawrence said he hopes fans find the time to play GTA 6 and go see his movie, but it remains to be seen what effect, if any, GTA 6’s release will have on that film’s performance at the box office. Spiegel said movie studios are banking on the belief that the theatrical experience “offers something consumers can’t get from their living rooms.”

There is a Thursday Night Football game happening on the same day that GTA 6 releases, with the Indianapolis Colts taking on the Houston Texans. Spiegel said the live-sports category overall could be “more resilient” because of its nature as an event happening live that fans of those teams, or fans of the NFL in general, feel compelled to watch live as it happens. A movie or TV show, meanwhile, is on-demand entertainment.

GTA 6 is a hugely anticipated release, and it’s poised to bring lapsed gamers back into the fold, but anyone who doesn’t already have a PS5 or Xbox Series X|S should prepare themselves for sticker shock. That’s because, for a variety of reasons, new consoles today are actually hundreds of dollars more expensive than they were when they launched in 2020.

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has frankly acknowledged, “The rising cost of hardware is not a good thing.” At the same time, Zelnick isn’t shaking in his boots about what this means for GTA 6. He thinks GTA 6 will be so good and so compelling that people will buy in no matter what.

“I don’t think it will slow us down any because, you know, we’re delivering, we believe we’re delivering experiences that people want,” Zelnick said. “However, a lower price point for hardware would be a good thing because there’d be more hardware in people’s hands.”

Who benefits?

In terms of companies, products, people, and services that could benefit from the ripple effects of GTA 6’s release, Spiegel said music associated with the game could surge in listening activity. This has already happened, as streams of Tom Petty’s “Love Is A Long Road” surged after the first trailer for GTA 6 used the song back in 2023. More recently, Cliff Richard’s 1976 hit “Devil Woman” showed up in the GTA 6 Extended Look on Netflix, helping the song reach more people, including young people who maybe never even knew about the song. Spiegel said social media platforms could benefit from GTA 6’s release as well, thanks to fans uploading gameplay clips, livestreams, and other forms of user-generated content inspired by GTA 6. Beyond this, the world of food delivery could see an uptick in activity as people opt to stay in to play GTA 6 (while in-person restaurants and other nightlife venues could take a hit).

“The broader point is that the impact could extend into parts of the economy we don’t traditionally associate with gaming,” Spiegel said. “For business leaders, the question is whether they’re competing with this cultural moment for consumer attention or finding ways to participate in it. That’s what makes this launch so much more interesting than simply tracking how many copies are sold.”

GTA 6 Is Like The Olympics – “A Rare Cultural Moment” With Massive Ripple Effects

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“Huge net positive”

Could GTA 6 lead the push to more in-game ads?

More investment

Who should be afraid?

Who benefits?

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